ISSN: 3048-6939

Enhancing Smart Grid Resilience through Hybrid Forecasting of Renewable Energy Generation and Dynamic Load Balancing

Abstract

The integration of renewable energy sources (RES) into the smart grid presents significant challenges and opportunities. Intermittency and variability in RES generation, coupled with fluctuating demand, can strain grid stability and reliability. This paper proposes a hybrid forecasting model that combines machine learning techniques with statistical methods to predict renewable energy generation and dynamic load balancing strategies to enhance smart grid resilience. The forecasting model integrates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to improve prediction accuracy. The dynamic load balancing strategy employs a multi-objective optimization algorithm, considering both cost minimization and grid stability. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in mitigating the impact of RES intermittency, reducing overall energy costs, and improving grid reliability under various operational scenarios. The paper concludes with a discussion of the limitations and potential future research directions in this critical area of smart grid management.

References

  1. Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C., & Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time series analysis: Forecasting and control. John Wiley & Sons.
  2. Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2018). Forecasting: principles and practice. OTexts.
  3. Sfetsos, A. (2002). Support vector machines for wind speed time series prediction. Renewable Energy, 27(3), 355-374.
  4. Ghiassi-Farrokhfal, Y., Ghiassi-Farrokhfal, A., & Ghanizadeh, A. (2018). Time series forecasting using LSTM recurrent neural networks. Journal of Engineering, 2018.
  5. Hochreiter, S., & Schmidhuber, J. (1997). Long short-term memory. Neural computation, 9(8), 1735-1780.
  6. Zhang, J., Yan, J., Infield, D., & Liu, Y. (2011). Short-term wind power forecasting with a wavelet-support vector machine. Renewable Energy, 36(10), 3056-3065.
  7. Yagli, G. M., Yang, D., & Srinivasan, D. (2019). A review of solar irradiance and PV power forecasting models and metrics. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 112, 119-149.
  8. Albadi, M. H., & El-Saadany, E. F. (2008). A summary of demand response in electricity markets. Electric Power Systems Research, 78(11), 1989-1996.
  9. Palensky, P., & Dietrich, D. (2011). Demand side management: Demand response, intelligent energy systems, and smart loads. IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics, 7(3), 381-388.
  10. Conejo, A. J., Morales, J. M., & Baringo, L. (2010). Real-time demand response model. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 1(3), 273-281.
  11. Samadi, P., Wong, V. W. S., & Schober, R. (2010). Optimal real-time pricing algorithm based on utility maximization for smart grid. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 1(3), 290-299.
  12. Kennedy, J., & Eberhart, R. (1995). Particle swarm optimization. Proceedings of ICNN'95 - International Conference on Neural Networks, 4, 1942-1948.
  13. Saadat, H. (2002). Power system analysis. McGraw-Hill.
  14. Saad, W., Han, Z., Debbah, M., Hjorungnes, A., & Basar, T. (2012). Game-theoretic methods for the smart grid: An overview of microgrid systems. IEEE Signal Processing Magazine, 29(5), 86-105.
  15. Mathieu, J. L., Price, C. M., & Kiliccote, S. (2013). Quantifying the effects of forecast error on demand response resources. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 4(1), 430-439.
  16. Mohsenian-Rad, A. H., Wong, V. W. S., Jatskevich, J., Schober, R., & Leon-Garcia, A. (2010). Optimal and autonomous incentive-based demand response mechanism with load uncertainty. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 1(3), 320-330.
  17. Zhou, Y., Wu, J., Zhou, Y., & Li, G. (2020). A hybrid deep learning model for short-term wind power forecasting. Energy, 192, 116603.
  18. Li, Y., Zhang, X., & Wang, J. (2021). A novel hybrid forecasting model based on variational mode decomposition and long short-term memory network for wind power prediction. Energy Conversion and Management, 229, 113747.
  19. Tushar, W., Chai, B., Yuen, C., Smith, D. B., Wood, K. L., & Yang, J. (2012). A game-theoretic approach for energy trading in a microgrid. IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid, 3(4), 1778-1788.
  20. Alabdulwahab, A., Abido, M. A., & Al-Odah, Y. (2015). A particle swarm optimization-based approach for multi-objective distribution generation planning. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 65, 380-390.
Download PDF

How to Cite

Pankaj Pachauri, (2025-05-02 11:02:31.242). Enhancing Smart Grid Resilience through Hybrid Forecasting of Renewable Energy Generation and Dynamic Load Balancing. JANOLI International Journal of Applied Engineering and Management, Volume UIh3MC5UrwhGKptS6jkQ, Issue 3.