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Comparative Modelling of India’s Population Forecast for 2027: Using Exponential and Logistic Frameworks (P1-P1)

Authors: Deeraj Yadav, Prakash Chand Srivastava

Published: 2025/11/1

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Abstract

This study presents a comparative analysis of the logistic and exponential growth models for forecasting India’s population in 2027. Both models were calibrated using United Nations population estimates (2021 and 2025) along with historical census data spanning from 1971 to 2011. The logistic model, constrained by a carrying capacity of 1.7 billion, predicts a population of 1.501 billion in 2027, while the exponential model forecasts a slightly higher figure of 1.508 billion.The comparison highlights that while exponential growth models can effectively describe short-term population dynamics, they tend to overestimate future populations when long-term resource limitations and social constraints are ignored. In contrast, the logistic model provides a more realistic projection by incorporating the concept of environmental carrying capacity and saturation effects. The results underscore the importance of logistic modeling for realistic demographic forecasting and strategic policy formulation. Accurate population projections are critical for sustainable development, infrastructure planning, and healthcare resource allocation. By offering a simple yet robust framework for population estimation, this work supports evidence-based decision-making and contributes to the broader discourse on sustainable demographic management in developing economies.

Keywords

Core Modelling Keywords, Exponential Growth Model, Logistic Growth Model, Comparative Modelling, Mathematical Modelling, Population Dynamics, Forecasting Demography Keywords, Population Forecast, Population Projection, Demographic Trends, India Population 2027, Population Studies.

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How to Cite

Deeraj Yadav, Prakash Chand Srivastava, (2025/11/1). Comparative Modelling of India’s Population Forecast for 2027: Using Exponential and Logistic Frameworks. JANOLI International Journal of Mathematical Science, Volume OM6fuUNmywfCu7IAA7wn, Issue 3.

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